CUBA NEWS
December 29, 2003

FROM CUBA The aging of the Cuban population: Elderly to exceed children by 2010 o5r2f

HAVANA, December 17 (cubanet.sergipeconectado.com) - Cuba's elderly will for 18% of the total of less than 12 million by 2010, said a study from the Demographic Studies Center at the University of Havana, exceeding children for the first time in history.

The present level of elderly is 14%, sured, in Latin America, only by Uruguay with 16%.

The study, by Dr. Otilia Z. Barros, is called "Development and Demographic Prospects in Cuba. Toward Sustainable Growth" and was published this year.

The study points to a slowing down of population growth after rapid growth in the second half of the 20th Century. By 2015, the study predicts, population could actually start decreasing. Since 1978, Cubans have not been producing one daughter for every woman.

Dr. Barros attributes the trends to "first, a decrease in the birth rate, from 18 births per 1000 in 1988, to 13.6 per 1000 in 1998; an increase in life expectancy, and the effect of migrations, in which mostly the younger people leave.


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