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Cloning Castro 735ev
Helle Dale. The
Heritage Foundation, August 19, 2004.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been
called "Fidel Castro with oil."
Now that description can be elaborated to
-- "Fidel Castro with popular referendum."
Unless charges of massive voter fraud by
the Venezuelan are upheld, we are now stuck
with another autocratic ruler in Latin America,
an anti-American demagogue and an ally of
Castro - with a democratic mandate.
With the recall petition against him rejected
by 58 percent of Venezuela's voters, Mr.
Chavez pulled off a calculated gamble. He
is now here to stay, possibly for a third
presidential term. On the losing side in
this equation, we find the anti-Chavez opposition
and U.S. foreign policy in the region.
By ing the recall vote in the first
place, the U.S. government placed its bet
on a loss for Chavez. This was a reasonable
and understandable decision, given the Venezuelan
leader's record as an international troublemaker
and er of terrorist groups, among
them, the vicious Colombian FARC. He has
shown scant respect for democratic institutions,
but wields international clout because of
Venezuela's oil reserves, the fifth largest
in the world. The conundrum for U.S. officials
will be how to adjust U.S. policy in the
region to minimize the damage.
Six years of Chavez demagoguery has totally
polarized Venezuelan society. Given Venezuela's
political turmoil over the past two years,
February's soaring levels of unrest and
demonstrations in Caracas, which left 11
people dead in clashes with police, and
given the resentment caused by Mr. Chavez's
record of failed populist policies, his
easy recall victory was stunning, to say
the least.
Some 2.5 million Venezuelans had risked
everything to sign the recall petition at
great personal risk of harassment. The National
Election Council, packed by Mr. Chavez with
ers, initially rejected one million
signatures for failing to include sufficient
personal data. Even fingerprinting was required.
In May, under international pressure, Mr.
Chavez changed tack and agreed to allow
the recall to go forward.
One reason was surely that the recent spike
in crude oil prices helped Mr. Chavez buy
his way back into favor with Venezuela's
poor, with a fund of $1.7 billion set aside
for the purpose. And in return for oil deliveries
to Cuba, he was able to import numbers of
Cuban doctors, nurses and teachers to staff
clinics and schools. All of which are time-honored
populist practices, undermining an opposition
that had no such resources at its disposal.
And let's not forget, Chavez commands control
of the electronic media.
In the end, furthermore, Chavez calculated
that even if he did lose the referendum,
he could run again in the presidential election
that would be held 30 days later, in which
he would probably defeat a disorganized
Venezuelan opposition. All this maneuvering
rested on shaky constitutional ground, but
that has never presented an obstacle for
this man.
So where do we go from here? International
scrutiny of the election result is certainly
the first order of business. With new voting
machines, a record turnout and agonizingly
long waits at polling stations, where hours
had to be extended beyond 8 pm, the voting
process certainly had problems. So far,
two of the National Election Council
have refused to sign onto the result, calling
into question the fairness of the process.
If fraud is proven, the U.S. government
should demand a recount and threaten international
punitive measures like cutting off World
Bank loans to Venezuela.
If the result stands, however, we must
continue to work with the Venezuelan opposition.
Given Mr. Chavez's penchant for running
roughshod over political and legal processes,
a robust democratic opposition will still
be needed to prevent his worst excesses.
That would at least be different from Cuba,
where the political opposition speaks from
jail cells, if at all.
And finally, though Mr. Chavez has yet
to make good on his occasional threats to
cut off oil to the United States, it would
be much in the U.S. interest to minimize
the 15 percent of its crude oil imports
that it gets from Venezuela. We need to
diversify. Alternative oil suppliers in
this hemisphere with more reliable governments
include Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, and Mexico.
(And let's not forget the Alaskan Nature
and Wildlife Refuge.) Moreover, we should
help dependent Latin American and Caribbean
nations diversify their own energy sources
to minimize Mr. Chavez's clout. Depriving
Mr. Chavez of his life-blood will curtail
the damage he can do in the future.
Helle Dale is director of Foreign Policy
and Defense Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
E-mail: [emailprotected].
First appeared in The Washington Times
1995
- 2004 The Heritage Foundation
All Rights Reserved.
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