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As Fidel Castro turns 80,
Havana and U.S. wonder: What happens next?
By Vanessa Bauz,
South Florida Sun-Sentinel,
July 10 2006.
As Cuban President Fidel Castro approaches
his 80th birthday next month, the once taboo
topic of succession is becoming more public
in Havana. Raul Castro, his brother and
designated successor, has recently made
more public appearances and referred to
a government without his brother. Last week
officials took steps to strengthen the role
of the Communist Party.
Whether Havana after Castro will simply
refresh its one-party system under new leadership
or move rapidly toward major reforms similar
to those that transformed Eastern Europe
in the late 1980s, the role of the United
States is uncertain. The United States may
simply have to watch warily from the sidelines
while events unfold in Cuba. Ironically,
Washington's options may be limited by its
own laws designed to prevent weakening of
the U.S. embargo as well as nearly half
a century of acrimonious relations.
Washington's latest attempts to undermine
Cuba's succession plans are summarized in
a report expected to be released officially
today. A draft prepared by the Commission
for Assistance to a Free Cuba, led by Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice and Cuban-American
Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez,
describes "the urgency of working today
to ensure that the Cuban transition is genuine
and that the Castro regime's succession
strategy does not succeed."
The draft report presumes a transition
government friendly to the United States
that would seek Washington's aid as it charts
a path toward democracy. It lays out a wide
range of ways in which the United States
could help rebuild infrastructure,
free elections and media and encourage private
business, among other efforts. It also recommends
spending $80 million over the next two years
to bolster anti-Castro opposition in Cuba.
The draft describes the United States as
assisting -- not directing -- a transition.
Cuban officials nonetheless were outraged
by its recommendations. In Havana last week
, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcn
called the report a "true threat of
aggression" and its recommendations
"sinister pretenses" aimed at
regime change.
Observers said Cuba's government is now
in a better position to weather Washington's
economic pressures brought about by the
Commission's first report, released in 2004.
Among them were further limits on the flow
of hard currency to Cuba from exiles living
in the United States. Since then Cuba has
strengthened its economy largely through
strategic alliances with Venezuela, which
supplies hefty oil shipments at preferential
, and China, which has provided trade
credits.
"I think [Castro] is trying to leave
behind a country where the party is strong,
the social programs are working and the
economy is put back on solid footing through
partnerships with Venezuela, China and many
others," said Philip Peters, vice president
of the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based
think tank.
Some signs indicate a transfer of power
from Castro to his 75-year-old brother has
begun. Raul Castro has over the past several
months attempted to reassert the authority
of the Communist Party.
"Only the Communist Party as the institution
that unites the revolutionary vanguard ...
can be the worthy heir of the trust deposited
by the people in their leader," Raul
Castro said in June.
Cuba's official media announced last week
that the Communist Party has resurrected
an executive council designed to implement
party policies. The council will be led
by the Castro brothers and includes 10 other
, including longtime party stalwarts
and younger leaders in their 50s.
Though not a charismatic public speaker
capable of swaying the masses, Raul Castro
has indicated he would lead a government
ruled by "collective leadership,"
said Brian Latell, former national intelligence
officer for Latin America at the CIA and
author of After Fidel: The Inside Story
of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader.
"Raul already has begun to systematically
consolidate his power over the military
while asserting influence over the economy
and taking a central role in the Communist
Party," Latell said. "Raul always
has been the main organizer in the regime."
While predicting a relatively smooth succession,
Latell said some signs point to "the
possibility for significant popular disturbances"
after Castro's death. These include the
Cuban government's candid acknowledgment
that as many as 2.5 million younger Cubans
have suffered economic deprivations to the
point where they may not believe in the
Castro brothers' revolution.
"But I'm not willing to say Cubans
will rush to the streets when Fidel dies,"
Latell added.
U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, R-Miami,
who believes the Bush istration is
on the right track on Cuba policy, said
the United States must stand by the embargo
and refuse to normalize relations with Cuba
until it meets conditions in U.S. law. These
conditions, which he injected into what
is known as the Helms-Burton law, include
moving toward free elections and releasing
political prisoners.
He said Cuba would rapidly transform itself
through internal pressures, intensified
by the temptation of U.S. aid and economic
sustenance.
"If we bail them out unilaterally,
we will have sent billions in tourism and
financing in exchange for nothing,"
Diaz-Balart said. "Then the regime
theoretically could survive beyond the life
of the dictator.''
Other Cuba watchers contend that these
very conditions built into U.S. law could
tie the hands of U.S. officials during a
Cuban transition, especially if U.S. officials
insist on trying to return confiscated property
to Americans.
"What we should do is quietly watch
and wait, because the heirs to Fidel are
going to be anxious," said William
LeoGrande, dean of public affairs and a
longtime Cuba scholar at American University
in Washington. "They will be uncertain
how much legitimacy they have ... They will
be worried about the U.S. trying to take
advantage of their difficulties. It would
be in best interests of the U.S. if the
successors feel confident enough and safe
enough to actually open up the economy."
Sun-Sentinel wire services contributed
to this report.
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